Thursday, July 22, 2010

Estimation Accuracy: Extraneous information and anchoring effects


The Simula Lab in Norway has supported research on estimation error. Stein Grimstad's Ph.D. thesis on this topic has spawned several papers and references are provided below from the IEEE Digital Library in response to requests for sources.

In particular, irrelevant information in a specification will lead to larger estimates and telegraphing an expected size of an estimate will skew results (anchoring effect).


Avoiding Irrelevant and Misleading Information When Estimating Development Effort
Found in: IEEE Software
By Magne Jorgensen , Stein Grimstad
Issue Date:May 2008
pp. 78-83
Software development effort estimates are reported to be highly inaccurate and systematically overly optimistic. Empirical evidence suggests that this problem is caused to some extent by the influence of irrelevant and misleading information—for exam...

The Impact of Irrelevant Information on Estimates of Software Development Effort
Found in: 2007 Australian Software Engineering Conference (ASWEC'07)
By Stein Grimstad , Magne Jorgensen
Issue Date:April 2007
pp. 359-368
Combination of expert opinion is frequently used to

A framework for the analysis of software cost estimation accuracy
Found in: Proceedings of the 2006 ACM/IEEE international symposium on International symposium on empirical software engineering (ISESE '06)
By Magne Jørgensen,Stein Grimstad
Issue Date:September 2006
pp. 58-65
Many software companies track and analyze project performance by measuring cost estimation accuracy. A high estimation error is frequently interpreted as poor estimation skills. This is not necessarily a correct interpretation.

The Clients' Impact on Effort Estimation Accuracy in Software Development Projects
Found in: 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05)
By Stein Grimstad , Magne Jorgensen , Kjetil Molokken-Ostvold
Issue Date:September 2005
pp. 3
This paper focuses on the clients' impact on estimation accuracy in software development projects. Client related factors contributing to effort overruns as well as factors preventing overruns are investigated. Based on a literature review and a survey of ...

Understanding of Estimation Accuracy in Software Development Projects
Found in: 11th IEEE International Software Metrics Symposium (METRICS'05)
By Stein Grimstad
Issue Date:September 2005
pp. 42

No comments: